Between Prospect and Realism: Cognitive Biases, Emotions, and the ECOWAS-AES Diplomatic Fallout

Abstract

The fragmentation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), following the September 2023 Charter of Liptako-Gourma that established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), serves as a real-world case for studying how emotional biases and feelings impact diplomatic negotiations. Contributing to the emerging debate on bloc polarization in West Africa, this study evaluates the ECOWAS-AES diplomatic fallout through psycho-political lenses, focusing on escalating tensions characterized by sanctions and defiant responses from both parties. Drawing on prospect theory in psychology and political realism, this study argues that leading actors in ECOWAS and AES allowed confirmation bias, perceived threats, overconfidence, and the sunk cost fallacy to create flawed decision-making processes, leading them to overestimate their authority. The research demonstrates that groupthink reinforced existing biases, while loss aversion encouraged high-risk decisions, jointly undermining the traditional rational decision-making approaches of ECOWAS-AES diplomats. The study recommends incorporating psychological competence into diplomatic practice through emotional intelligence training and awareness of implicit biases.